Creating Synthetic Households from Population Projections in Metro Boston

Authors: Sarah Philbrick*, Metropolitan Area Planning Council, Colby M Brown, Manhan Group, Timothy G Reardon, Metropolitan Area Planning Council
Topics: Urban and Regional Planning, Applied Geography
Keywords: demographics, population projections, demography, population mapping, planning
Session Type: Interactive Short Paper
Day: 4/10/2018
Start / End Time: 2:40 PM / 4:20 PM
Room: Endymion, Sheraton, 8th Floor
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

This study proposes a method to convert regional population projections to a population of synthetic households. For years, Metro Boston has relied on population projections created using cohort-component methods for regional planning purposes. These projections were converted to household and housing demand projections using historical headship rates by age and race. Our new method allows for more nuance in household level characteristics and allows for the creation of scenarios based on demographic and policy changes such as: reducing disparities in educational outcomes by race, raising low income wages, continuing delayed household formation etc. These household level projections are then used to allocate population and employment in future years using Cube Land Software. This forecast of housing and employment location choice plays a large role in regional planning and policy. This work provides a new method for practitioners to explore the effects of policy and demographic changes on their population.

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