Evacuation of coastal populations in a multi‐risks context: comparison of scenarios implemented in an agent-based simulation model

Authors: Plattard Odile*, UMR 8504 Géographie-cités
Topics: Hazards and Vulnerability, Spatial Analysis & Modeling
Keywords: Agent-based model, evacuation, tsunami, earthquake, vulnerability
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/10/2018
Start / End Time: 8:00 AM / 9:40 AM
Room: Napoleon D1, Sheraton 3rd Floor
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

In more than 80% tsunami events, an earthquake occurs as the generator of the waves. In most of cases, the population will feel it and coastal territories can have damages from the seism. In some place, buildings can partly or totally collapse and obstruct a route for the tsunami evacuation. The consequences can be very important for the evacuation of the population when the tsunami approaches.
In this research, an agent-based model has been created to produce different evacuation scenarios. GIS data from fields (French Riviera and Sicily) have been implemented for the model environment. The tsunami event data is based on worst case simulations and past events. Several scenarios have been tested including shelter sites visibility and building collapse. This last issue determines if an evacuation itinerary will be safe and free for the population to evacuate by this route. Population behavior is based on other behavior model’s research and structured from field surveys (hazard and territory knowledge, groups…). All these information are implemented in the model in order to make different scenarios and show the impact of both hazards events. Scenarios are adapted to expected event with the option of a previous earthquake or not. The comparison shows the importance in the efficacy of the evacuation. With this model, the issue is to create a tool for hazard mitigation and a help for urban planner and local government in making evacuation strategies.

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