Assessment of Climate Change Impacts to Hawaii’s Crop Industries

Authors: Hunter Heaivilin*, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Tomoaki Miura, University of Hawaii at Manoa
Topics: Agricultural Geography
Keywords: agricultural geography, hawaii, GIS,
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/10/2018
Start / End Time: 8:00 AM / 9:40 AM
Room: Oakley, Sheraton, 4th Floor
Presentation File: No File Uploaded


Understanding of crop suitability ranges and their shifts is crucial to the continued diversification of Hawaii’s agricultural sector and an important tool for climate change adaptation. This study assessed the potential impacts of late-century climate change on the State of Hawaii’s top commodity crops by a geospatial land suitability analysis approach. Land suitability maps of commodity crops were first produced by spatially extrapolating their crop niches (e.g., soils, topography, temperature, and precipitation) using a geographic information system (GIS) for the current and future climate conditions. Current and future maps were then compared to determine crops and lands with stable suitability for continued production. The current suitability modeling results were verified against recent agricultural land use mapping and by commodity expert review whereas Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 scenarios were used to generate the late-century land suitability maps. This study is intended to inform producers and policymakers decision making about production diversification and adaptation to climate change

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