Predicting travel to work with the jobs-housing balance.

Authors: Daniel Schleith*, Brown University
Topics: Transportation Geography, Urban Geography, Quantitative Methods
Keywords: Jobs-housing balance, commuting, transportation, spatial statistics
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/10/2018
Start / End Time: 10:00 AM / 11:40 AM
Room: Poydras, Sheraton, 3rd Floor
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

The jobs-housing balance (JHB) has been studying for at least the last 30 years. Most of the literature deals with measuring JHB using one of more theoretical frameworks and then seeing the resulting travel outcomes (to work, or to shopping, etc.). The excess commuting (EC) framework is one of the most parsimonious measures of JHB available. The EC framework is used here to measure the JHB for 100 of the largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the continental U.S. for two time periods, 2002 and 2013. These EC measures, or how JHB has changed over time, are used to predict resulting observed travel costs (Tobs) using multivariate regression and principle components analysis. Preliminary results indicate that The theoretical minimum commute (Tmin) explains nearly 50 percent of the variation in Tobs. Comparing the trend over time and including more MSAs will further improve the model and contribute to the debate about whether monocentric, polycentric, or sprawling urban forms have shorter commuting outcomes generally.

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