Authors: Jun Wang*, , Si Yi, School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Mengya Li, School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Lei Wang, Department of Geography & Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Chengcheng Song, School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University
Topics: Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, Physical Geography, Coupled Human and Natural Systems
Keywords: sea level rise, land subsidence, bathymetric change, relative effect, MIKE 21
Session Type: Poster
Start / End Time: 1:20 PM / 3:00 PM
Room: Napoleon Foyer/Common St. Corridor, Sheraton, 3rd Floor
Presentation File: No File Uploaded
We compared the effects of sea level rise (SLR), land subsidence (LS) and bathymetric change (BC) on storm flooding in the coastal areas of Shanghai. The hydrological simulation model MIKE 21 was used to simulate flooding under multiple scenarios with consideration of different factors projected to year 2030 and 2050. Historical typhoons (TC9711, TC8114, TC0012, TC0205 and TC1109), which caused extremely high surges and considerable losses, were selected as representative reference tracks to generate the case typhoon events making landfalls in Shanghai (SHLD), in the north of Zhejiang (ZNLD) and moving northwards in the offshore area of Shanghai (MNS). Results demonstrated both the individual and the combined effects of SLR, LS and BC on storm flooding within the next four decades. Generally, storm flooding is much more serious in compound effects by SLR, LS and BC. Among the three change factors, bathymetry is the main factor responsible for more storm flooding in the short-term scenarios (year 2030), especially in the SHLD track scenarios. Sea level rise and land subsidence will become the dominant factors in the long-term scenarios (year 2050), especially in the SHLD and MNS track scenarios.