Towards a Co-Evolutionary Model of Land Use-Transpiration-Demographic Nexus for Large Urban Agglomeration

Authors: Chengchao Zuo*,
Topics: China, Spatial Analysis & Modeling, Transportation Geography
Keywords: Land Use-Transportation-Demographic Nexus, GIS´╝îUrbanization, Co-Evolutionary Model
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/10/2018
Start / End Time: 10:00 AM / 11:40 AM
Room: Grand Ballroom C, Astor, 2nd Floor
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

This paper reports a study on co-evolutionary model of land use-transportation-demographic nexus at micro level for urban agglomeration planning. The study took Wuhan Agglomeration as a case to dynamically model the feedback and interplay among population growth, land use change and transport infrastructure development. The model is consists of a microsimulation based demographic model, which represents the population dynamic at individual level; a discrete-choice model based housing select model, which modelled the housing choice under a specific land use policy; and an agent based model for traffic generating, which simulate the commuting flows within the urban agglomeration. The primary objective of the model is to modelling the following three effects 1) the increase in population, which is impact the land use patterns and increase in demand for infrastructure; 2) the land-use policy, which impacts the population distribution (by influence the housing choice) and transport infrastructure investment (by influence commuting patterns); and 3) the increase in infrastructure investment, which is attribute to the land use planning and the population distribution. The modelling results with different policy scenarios offered an initial proof of concept of the feasibility of implementing a co-evolutionary model land use-transportation-demographic nexus over a medium to long time horizon, and promises a distinct and exciting perspective on the co-dynamic interplay of land use policies, regional development, infrastructure provision and prosperity.

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