Space-Time Pattern of Dengue fever Distribution — The case of Tainan, Taiwan in 2015

Authors: Yi Wen Wang*, Postgraduate Student of Department of Geography,National Taiwan Normal University, Kuo-Chen Chang, Professor of Department of Geography, National Taiwan Normal University
Topics: Geography and Urban Health, Spatial Analysis & Modeling, Temporal GIS
Keywords: Dengue Fever, Spatio-Temporal analysis, land use, Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/10/2018
Start / End Time: 2:40 PM / 4:20 PM
Room: Lafayette, Marriott, River Tower Elevators, 41st Floor
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

In 2015, an unusual dengue fever outbreak took place in Tainan, Taiwan. The epidemic last from late June to the end of 2015 and had claimed 112 deaths.
This was no ordinary event. The diffusion of dengue fever has shown a very uneven space-time distribution. The disease had last extraordinarily long and there was an obvious hotspot in the old city. We can see that there are some intriguing patterns in both space and time.
We have done a previous study on the the factors of disease distribution. It showed no significant results on the effects of terrain, population distribution or major route. Therefore, we turn to land use types as a candidate for factors. Moreover, we opt for a finer scale of space and time. The moving average of confirmed cases are calculated with a 3-day time window, and the spatial unit has changed from basic statistical area level to a raster of 50 meters resolution. A space-time change model is built under the scale to simulate the space-time distribution and diffusion of dengue fever. We expect to crack down the real cause of the event from the space-time model.

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