Migration Impact on China’s Population Dividing Line Driven by Hybrid Features: A Climate Change Perspective

Authors: Yi Sun*, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Zheng Wang, Institute of Science and Development, CAS
Topics: Migration, Population Geography, Global Change
Keywords: Climate Changes; Hu Huanyong Line; Population Migration; Agricultural Production Potential
Session Type: Poster
Day: 4/11/2018
Start / End Time: 1:20 PM / 3:00 PM
Room: Napoleon Foyer/Common St. Corridor, Sheraton, 3rd Floor
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

China’s population dividing line (Hu Line) will develop with hybrid-driven features: 1, driven by potential agricultural production in long term; 2, driven by potential energy due to the wage gap between the eastern and the western provinces in the short term. This paper establishes a population-carrying model based on the Potential Agricultural Production and a multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model considering a transfer mechanism of remittance. Results show that the population proportion caused by climate change in the provinces west of the Hu Line will increase in the long term, but the stability of the Hu Line has not been broken down. In the short term, with the wage-driven expansion scale of the western emigrating labor-force scale, the total amount of the national economy shows an increasing trend and a gradually narrowing wage gap among regions. When the proportion of the western emigrating labor force is 30%, the per capita GDP gap between the western and the eastern provinces divided by Hu Line reaches a minimum—whereas when this proportion is 10%, the per capita income gap reaches a minimum. Though the rural migrant workers from the western province can improve the living standards of families in the western regions, overall it has little impact on the national and regional economy.

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