Socio-economic losses of storm flooding with effects of sea-level rise and Probable Maximum Tropical Cyclone in Shanghai

Authors: Si Yi*, School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China, Jun Wang, School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
Topics: Asia, Coastal and Marine, Hazards, Risks, and Disasters
Keywords: Sea level rise, PMTC, Socio-economic losses, Shanghai
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/11/2018
Start / End Time: 1:20 PM / 3:00 PM
Room: Napoleon B1, Sheraton 3rd Floor
Presentation File: No File Uploaded


This paper investigated the socio-economic losses of storm flooding with the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) and probable maximum tropical cyclone (PMTC) in the coastal areas of Shanghai. MIKE 21 was used to simulate storm flooding under multiple scenarios to year 2030 and 2050. Additionally, inundation depth, inundation area, population distribution and direct economic losses are selected as the key factors to assess the socio-economic losses caused by storm flooding. Specifically, loss models are established between water depth and mortality, as well as the land use. Using Song Jian's model of population development based on the 6th census data (2010) and the GeoCA-Urban model whose data sources are the land use data (2006) and the urban planning to predict the spatial distribution of the population and land use in Shanghai, respectively. Simulation results indicated flood risk increased with intensity and the impact of 75° moving direction triggering the storm flooding is more serious than that of 32°'s. Inundation areas are mainly located in the northern suburbs of Shanghai, where the population density is similar, but the landuse is quite different.The Chongming (CM) is mainly for agricultural but Baoshan, Jiading and Pudong gathered a large number of factories. Therefore, the most serious inundation can result in large mortality in CM, but suffer from huge economic losses in the other districts. The results can provide some useful information to policy and decision makers for future storm flooding mitigation measures.

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