Dynamics of house state consolidation in Lima Metropolitan area: a cellular automata approach

Authors: Victor Pena-Guillen*, Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina
Topics: Spatial Analysis & Modeling, Urban Geography, South America
Keywords: Informal urbanization, house consolidation, cellular automata
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/14/2018
Start / End Time: 10:00 AM / 11:40 AM
Room: Grand Chenier, Sheraton, 5th Floor
Presentation File: No File Uploaded


A specifically designed Cellular Automata (CA) model, which is based on actual data at micro-scale of housing block permits to track house state transition process in informally developed areas of Lima. An updating algorithm is devised to reproduce house consolidation process under experimental conditions where the access to this dynamic system is limited to only the construction state variable. Constraints of this approach are rooted on the use of the single variable of state to replicate the whole spatial configuration and temporal trajectories. Rule-based behavior is chosen to represent individual performance of house-represented agents; dynamic interactions arises when rule is repeated along time steps; implementation of the rule modifies also the spatial configuration of house states into the lattice that represent the block within CA model. Model has located consolidated houses with fair precision, however development in the block may depend on other causes than only spatial influence from adjacent neighbors; further work oriented to disentangle these possibilities should consider a more explicit representation of the social dimension and social dynamics. This study permits to describe this complex system at the scale of the house, and to have access to the necessary information to replicate consolidation process, an approach oriented to analyze the dynamics of informal urbanization from the bottom-up. Current research may provide insights for planners in public and private institutions; scenarios based on this model provide a possibility for tailored interventions at micro-scale.

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