Sensitivity analysis of supply and demand change for intersectoral CO2 emissions in China

Authors: Yuantao Yang*, Beijing Institute of Technology, Bin Zhang, Beijing Institute of Technology, Bo Wang, Beijing Institute of Technology, Zhaohua Wang, Beijing Institute of Technology
Topics: Energy
Keywords: Input-output model, Sensitivity analysis, CO2 emissions, Intersectoral linkage
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/10/2018
Start / End Time: 2:40 PM / 4:20 PM
Room: Galerie 3, Marriott, 2nd Floor
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

China has set a series of ambitious INDC mitigation goals since it has become the top CO2 emitter in the world, but it is essential to analyze the internal factors and relationships between sectors leading to CO2 emissions to realize the targets. Aiming to identify the most relevant productive and distributive transactions in terms of intersectoral linkages of sectors with larger CO2 emissions, this paper establishes the CO2 emissions elasticity indicators of distributive and primary input coefficients from the supply side as well as technical and final demand coefficients from the demand side based on the input-output technique combined with sensitivity analysis. Then we apply the elasticity indicators to the Chinese case with its latest symmetrical input-output table of the year 2012, and the results obtained from the two perspectives are different. From the demand perspective, transactions from Manufacture of nonmetallic mineral products to Construction, as well as demand of Gross fixed capital formation from Construction have the two highest elasticities, and the adjustments of transactions between them can cause greatest effect of CO2 emissions change of manufacture of nonmetallic mineral products, one of the sectors with larger CO2 emissions. While, adjustment of rationing from Extraction of petroleum and natural gas to Processing of petroleum, coking and processing of nuclear fuel, and the primary input from Employee compensation to Other industries, can cause greatest CO2 emissions change of Extraction of petroleum and natural gas and Other industries respectively from the supply perspective. By analyzing the above and other important intersectoral

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