Mapping Housing Market Strength and Displacement Pressures in Chicago, IL

Authors: Joyce Percel*, DePaul University, Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University, Sarah Duda, Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University, Geoff Smith, Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University
Topics: Geographic Information Science and Systems, Urban Geography, Spatial Analysis & Modeling
Keywords: Housing, Gentrification
Session Type: Poster
Day: 4/11/2018
Start / End Time: 5:20 PM / 7:00 PM
Room: Napoleon Foyer/Common St. Corridor, Sheraton, 3rd Floor
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

Demographic shifts in Chicago have planners and policymakers concerned about displacement pressures due to rising housing costs and lost affordability, especially in areas surrounding planned public investments. The Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University recently created a mapping tool that visualizes neighborhood-level displacement risk to support public investment decisions and guide practical and proactive responses for preserving housing affordability. The tool allows users to explore areas of high-cost areas where gentrification is likely underway, moderate-cost communities where displacement risk could be accelerated with certain initiatives, and lower-cost areas that have experienced upward market movement but require long-term investment and strategies to rebuild housing demand. This presentation will highlight the analysis developed to identify relative housing market strength and appreciation levels using kriging spatial interpolation. The distance weighting used in interpolation methods allowed us to measure market strength based on relative location, rather than calculating within a geographic boundary such as census tracts, to create a more accurate estimation of market strength. We used sale transactions data from the Cook County Recorder of Deeds as our sample points and performed kriging interpolation in both 2012 and 2016 to assess current market conditions and levels of appreciation over time. The resulting data were then aggregated into census tract boundaries to be compared with ACS demographic characteristics for displacement vulnerability, such as housing cost burden or income, to identify areas where public investment could affect affordability and potentially create heightened displacement pressure.

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