Authors: Sunhak Bae*, Kangwon National University, Heejun Chang, Portland State University
Topics: Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, Asia, Land Use and Land Cover Change
Keywords: flood, spatial autocorrelation, spatiotemporal, landcover, urbanization, Korea
Session Type: Poster
Start / End Time: 8:00 AM / 9:40 AM
Room: Napoleon Foyer/Common St. Corridor, Sheraton, 3rd Floor
Presentation File: Download
We investigated factors affecting flood damage in the Seoul metropolitan area in South Korea that experienced rapid economic growth and urbanization for the last 30 years. The main research questions are: (1) Where are the hotspots of flood-vulnerable areas in the study area?; (2) As urbanization progresses, what biophysical characteristics of urban areas are associated with flood damage?; (3) How has the conversion of natural areas to urban land covers been associated with flood damage?
Using spatial regression models, we examined how land cover change and demographic factors affect flood damage in the study area for each ten year period from 1986 to 2015. A unique aspect of this study is the use of an old map that was created 100 years ago.
Our results show that high flood damage areas are spatially clustered in the central and the outer of the study area Population density was the common factor that best explained flood damage in all three periods. In the early stage of urban expansion, the higher the ratio of agricultural land that had been converted to the urban land, the greater the flood damage. As urbanization continued and matured, the higher the ratio of forest area that had been converted to the urban area, the greater the flood damage. In areas experiencing rapid urbanization, there was a spatial difference in flood damage according to urbanization level. Factors affecting flood damage also changed over time, suggesting that changes in flood control measures are necessary as urbanization progresses.