Authors: Erika Jimenez Rivera*, Hunter College - City University
Topics: Urban Geography, Latin America, Geographic Information Science and Systems
Keywords: Guayaquil, urban expansion, Markov-CA model, GWR, land cover change.
Session Type: Poster
Start / End Time: 1:20 PM / 3:00 PM
Room: Napoleon Foyer/Common St. Corridor, Sheraton, 3rd Floor
Presentation File: Download
Historically, Latin American cities have experienced rapid urban growth which causes both social and environmental repercussions. In Ecuador, Guayaquil is the biggest city, which has experienced a rapid urban expansion that is characterized by new spaces with poor social and environmental conditions. The urban expansion in this city is a complex event that involves political, physical, social, and ecological aspects. In this study, I analyze the social and environmental transformations of the urbanization process using geospatial technologies. These technologies and environmental and social variables can be integrated to assess land use change and its impacts. Therefore, this research integrates social and environmental data into a Markov chain and Cellular automata integrated model, and GWR regression to accomplish a spatial analysis of the impacts of urban expansion. First, land cover maps are extracted from three satellite images (1985, 2010, 2016). Second, a transition matrix is computed from land use maps using Markov model. Third, transition potential maps are generated based on natural and social variables. Finally, the transition matrix and transition potential maps are implemented in the Markov-CA model to simulate a land cover change map in the next 15 years. For validation, actual and simulated maps (2010) are compared using kappa index of agreement. The final results show that there is still a tendency of urban expansion which causes land cover changes and socio-environmental issues.