Electric vehicles market penetration in California

Authors: Jae Hyun Lee*, University of California, Davis, Gil Tal, University of California Davis, Wei Ji, University of California, Davis
Topics: Transportation Geography
Keywords: PEV sales, Electric vehicle, Neighborhood effects
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/12/2018
Start / End Time: 1:20 PM / 3:00 PM
Room: Proteus, Sheraton, 8th Floor
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

The State of California wants to accelerate the penetration of PEVs and fuel cell vehicles to 1.5 million vehicles by 2025 (Governor's Interagency Working Group, 2013) and reach 15% of new vehicles sold in California by 2025 (California Air Resources Board, 2014). In order to find policy tools to accelerate the market penetration of PEV, it is important to better understand/identify the factors relating to individuals’ adoption of PEVs. Many attempts have been made with a wide variety of methods. However, neighborhood effects have rarely been examined in this vein of studies because individuals' frequent exposure to PEVs itself could also directly increase awareness of PEVs and it helps to increase the probability of PEV purchase in the future. Therefore, this paper aims to understand the existence of neighborhood effects in PEV market penetration in the largest PEV market in the U.S., and examine their changes over time. As electric vehicles are more prevalent, it is possible neighborhood effects can be also stronger or vice versa. In addition, by using different distances to define neighbors, we will be able to find boundaries of neighborhood effects for PEV market penetration models. We will use a census tract level PEV sales data by 2016 based on clean vehicle rebate program (CVRP) records to develop models to test neighborhood effects.

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