Future Scenarios of Urban Extreme Events

Type: Paper
Theme: Hazards, Geography, and GIScience
Sponsor Groups:
Poster #:
Day: 4/12/2018
Start / End Time: 5:20 PM / 7:00 PM
Room: Napoleon, Marriott, River Tower Elevators, 41st Floor
Organizers: Zoe Hamstead, Timon McPhearson
Chairs: Zoe Hamstead


As our climate changes, extreme events including heat waves, droughts, flooding, fire and storm surge are becoming more frequent and intense. In particular, urban communities with concentrated infrastructure and large, diverse populations will be increasingly at risk of health, economic and well being impacts. These impacts are driven by sea level rise, warming air and oceans, urban built environments and land use policy, demographic compositions and communities’ capacity to adapt. A range of approaches – including remote-sensing based modeling, greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and analysis of local government planning strategies – are used to forecast extreme events and their impacts. Given large possibility spaces and opportunities for adaptive planning, rigid predictive approaches may be highly inaccurate and thus, there is a need to consider multiple alternative pathways or scenarios. Moreover, stakeholder engagement in future scenarios can promote visionary thinking and tailor scenarios to local stakeholder visions in ways that improve their adoption into resilience and sustainability planning at both neighborhood and municipal scales. Additionally, such approaches can allow for comparison of which cities are likely to achieve greater resilience to extreme events, and why. An emerging science of urban resilience scenarios is beginning to focus on crucial questions around how urban decision-making will impact urban climate extremes, and explore the potential for engagement in transformational visioning.
We will examine topics related to:

• Stakeholder engagement and collaborative approaches for envisioning future extreme event scenarios
• Back-casting and forecasting approaches using computational and qualitative methods
• Vulnerability scenarios that characterize biophysical, social sensitivity and adaptive capacity futures
• Frameworks for conceptualizing a variety of scenarios types/possibility spaces for resilience to extreme events planning

We will leverage the NSF Urban Resilience to Weather-related Extreme Events Sustainability Research Network (URExSRN.net) as a platform for engaging research on these issues and broadening the network and scholarship with other AAG researchers.


Type Details Minutes Start Time
Presenter Melissa Davidson*, , Yeowon Kim, Arizona State University, Marta Berbes, Arizona State University, Elizabeth Cook, The New School, Nancy Grimm, Arizona State University, Zoe Hamsted, University at Buffalo, David Iwaniec, Georgia State University, Urban Climate Adaptation and Vulnerability: Assessing social, ecological and technological strategies in three US cities 20 5:20 PM
Presenter David M Iwaniec*, Urban Studies Institute, Georgia State University, Elizabeth Cook, The New School, Marta Berbes, Arizona State University, Melissa Davidson, Arizona State University, Nancy Grimm, Arizona State University, Timon McPhearson, The New School, Tischa Muñoz-Erickson, USDA Forest Service, Positive Futures 20 5:40 PM
Presenter Marta Berbes-Blazquez*, , David Iwaniec, Georgia State University, Darin Wahl, Portland State University, Elizabeth Cook, The New School, Assessing the resilience, sustainability, and transformability of the future of Latin American cities 20 6:00 PM
Presenter Timon McPhearson*, , A social-ecological-technical systems approach to modeling future scenarios of heat and heat vulnerability in New York City 20 6:20 PM
Presenter Elizabeth Cook*, The New School, David Iwaniec, Georgia State University, Nancy Grimm, Arizona State University, Olga Barbosa, Universidad Austral de Chile, Research-practice criteria for urban sustainability transformations 20 6:40 PM

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