Future accessibility impacts of transport policy scenarios: equity and sensitivity to travel time thresholds

Authors: Rafael Pereira*, University of Oxford
Topics: Transportation Geography, Urban and Regional Planning, Quantitative Methods
Keywords: Equity, Accessibility, BRT, Rio de Janeiro, Distributive justice, Transport policy
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/3/2019
Start / End Time: 12:40 PM / 2:20 PM
Room: Coolidge, Marriott, Mezzanine Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

The accessibility impacts of transport projects ex-post implementation are generally evaluated using cumulative opportunity measures based on a single travel-time threshold. Fewer studies have explored how accessibility appraisal of transport plans can be used to evaluate policy scenarios and their impacts for different social groups or examined whether the results of project appraisals are sensitive to time threshold choice. This paper analyzes how different scenarios of full and partial implementation of the TransBrasil BRT project in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) will likely impact the number of jobs accessible to the population of different income levels. The analysis is conducted under various travel-time thresholds of 30, 60, 90 and 120 minutes to test whether the results are sensitive to the modifiable temporal unit problem (MTUP). The size of the accessibility impacts of the proposed BRT as well as its distribution across income classes would significantly change depending on the time threshold chosen for the accessibility analysis. Considering cut-off times of 30 or 60 minutes, both scenarios of TransBrasil would lead to higher accessibility impacts in general and particularly for low-income groups, moving Rio towards a more equitable transportation system. However, under longer thresholds of 90 and 120 minutes, an evaluation of this project would find much smaller accessibility gains more evenly distributed by income levels. The paper highlights how time threshold choice in cumulative opportunity measures can have important but overlooked implications for policy evaluation and it calls for further research on the MTUP in future transport and mobility studies.

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