Reduced future livestock snow disaster risk in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: socioeconomic development dominates the contribution

Authors: Tao Ye*, Beijing Normal University, Weihang Liu, Beijing Normal University, Jidong Wu, Beijing Normal University, Yijia Li, Beijing Normal University, Peijun Shi, Beijing Normal University
Topics: Global Change, Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, Hazards and Vulnerability
Keywords: Livestock mortality risk; relative contribution; snow disaster; climate warming; socioeconomic development; Tibetan Plateau
Session Type: Lightning Paper
Day: 4/6/2019
Start / End Time: 8:00 AM / 9:40 AM
Room: Marshall North, Marriott, Mezzanine Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

The risk of extreme climate events in the context of global change is co-driven by the changing climate brining changes in frequency and intensity of the events and socioeconomic development essentially altering our exposure and vulnerability. Assessing future risk and understanding the contribution of climate and socioeconomic systems are critical for risk-informed adaptation. Tibetan Plateau is the highest and one of the largest natural pastoral areas in China and the world. Animal husbandry has been suffered from severe snow disaster, an extreme climate events that brings long-last snow cover that makes forage unavailable and inaccessible for livestock and lead to massive mortality. Understanding the changes of livestock snow disaster risk in future climate and local socioeconomic conditions are critical for local herder community’s livelihood. With the help of an event-based livestock snow disaster risk assessment tool, we managed to model livestock mortality risk in 2030s and 2050s by incorporating projected climate (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and socioeconomic conditions (shared socioeconomic pathways 2 and 3). Our results indicated that, livestock mortality risk due to snow disaster declines across in the plateau in general in the future, while the spatial pattern of high/low risks did not change much. Both climate warming and increased prevention capacity contributed to the decline in annual mortality risk, but the later dominates the contribution.

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