The labor disruption effect in modeling flood economic impact evaluation

Authors: Ning Li*, Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Yuan Liu, Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University
Topics: Hazards, Risks, and Disasters
Keywords: Economic impact; natural disaster; resilience
Session Type: Lightning Paper
Day: 4/6/2019
Start / End Time: 8:00 AM / 9:40 AM
Room: Marshall North, Marriott, Mezzanine Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded


Evaluating the economic impacts caused by capital destruction is an effective method for disaster management and prevention, but the magnitude of the economic impact of labor disruption on the economic system remains unclear. This paper emphasizes the importance of considering labor disruption when evaluating the economic impact of natural disasters using a case study of a largest flood disaster that occurred in Wuhan city on July 6 (“7.6 Wuhan Flood disaster”) in 2016 in China. Based on the principle of disasters and the properties of the resilience curve, we integrate key modules (labor loss introduction and its non-linear recovery module) into the dynamic ARIO model and evaluate the economic impact in the post-disaster recovery period. The results indicate that i) the economic impacts of the “7.6 Wuhan Flood disaster” are less than 15.12% if we do not consider labor disruption; ii) the economic impact caused by insufficient labor forces accounts for 42.27% in secondary industries and 36.29% in tertiary industries, which can cause huge losses if both industries suffer shocks. These results provide evidence for the important role of labor disruption effect and prove that it is a non-negligible component of post-disaster economic recovery and post-disaster reduction. Adding labor disruption parameter to the model is our innovation.

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