Indirect Economic Loss and Dynamic Change Assessment of Typhoon Ewiniar in Guangdong, China

Authors: Yuan Liu*, Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Ning Li, Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University
Topics: Hazards, Risks, and Disasters
Keywords: ARIO; typhoon; indirect economic loss; economic department
Session Type: Lightning Paper
Day: 4/6/2019
Start / End Time: 8:00 AM / 9:40 AM
Room: Marshall North, Marriott, Mezzanine Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded


Ewiniar is the fourth named typhoon in the 2018 Pacific Typhoon Season, which is the first typhoon that landed in China this year and caused serious disasters in Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan and Hainan provinces. According to statistics from the Guangdong Provincial Civil Affairs Department, the direct economic losses in Guangdong caused by Ewiniar amounted to about 2550 million yuan, which was the first among the provinces affected. This paper evaluates the indirect economic losses of Guangdong Province by verifying the key parameters of ARIO model, based on the IO table of Guangdong Province in 2015. The results show that the indirect economic loss caused by Ewiniar is 550 million yuan, accounting for 22% of the direct economic loss, which means the total economic loss reaches 3101 million yuan, accounting for 0.12% of Guangdong's GDP (2.4 trillion yuan) in the second quarter of 2018. Agriculture, forestry, fishery, water conservancy, transportation, post and telecommunications are highly sensitive sectors affected by typhoons. Although Ewiniar did not cause direct economic losses to the financial, insurance, real estate, business and tourism sectors, the total indirect economic impact on these sectors was 128 million yuan due to the relatively complete industrial chain in Guangdong Province. Therefore, we believe that attaching importance to the indirect economic losses, and fully analyzing the dynamic changes of indirect economic losses in the process of disaster recovery are conducive to formulating disaster reduction strategies and minimize the impact of disasters on the economic system.

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