Authors: Xiaokang Hu*, School of Geography, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Yuan Gao, School of Geography, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Shiqi Li, School of Geography, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, An Shi, School of Geography, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Jing'ai Wang, School of Geography, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE, Beijing Normal University
Topics: Hazards and Vulnerability, Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, Global Change
Keywords: Global Changing, Precipitation trend, Crop modelling, Vulnerability curve, Risk governance
Session Type: Lightning Paper
Start / End Time: 8:00 AM / 9:40 AM
Room: Marshall North, Marriott, Mezzanine Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded
In the context of global climate change, global precipitation has changed and will continue to change. In this study, the precipitation trend is defined as a long-term, continuous and monotonous linear change of annual precipitation relative to the mean state in a certain period of time, and the vulnerability is defined as the response of maize yield to different precipitation trend scenarios. This study aimed at the distribution range of American corn in the historical period (1986-2005), combined with historical meteorological and production data, set 11 precipitation trend scenarios. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate （EPIC） model was used to simulate the yield of Maize under the precipitation trend scenario grid by grid by scenario + simulation, and then the precipitation trend was calculated. Levenberg-Marquardt method was used to fit and generate vulnerability curves of maize yield variation under different precipitation trend scenarios. The results show that the different precipitation trend scenario-corn yield variation vulnerability curve generally accords with the generalized logistic curve distribution. However, due to the regional precipitation difference, the vulnerability curve still has linear and parabolic shapes. Under the same precipitation trend scenario, the yield changes of maize in different regions are affected by precipitation. By constructing the maize vulnerability curve under different precipitation trend scenarios, it is helpful to improve the accuracy of the risk mapping of corn yield variation under climate change and improve the prediction ability of global crop yield risk.