Progress in understanding the mechanisms and assessments of global change risks of population and economic systems

Authors: Peijun Shi*, Beijing Normal University
Topics: Global Change, Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, Hazards and Vulnerability
Keywords: global change risk; population and economic system; mechanism; risk assessment
Session Type: Lightning Paper
Day: 4/6/2019
Start / End Time: 8:00 AM / 9:40 AM
Room: Marshall North, Marriott, Mezzanine Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

The National Key R & D program of China project “Global Change Risk of Population and Economics Systems: Mechanisms and Assessments” has obtained major progress. The project has diagnosed and identified global hotspots of extreme climate changes in future climate change scenarios. These hotspots around the world change by decade and season, but the Amazon basin will remain a hotspot throughout the simulation period. In the mid-21th century, global economic exposure to flood will significantly increase from 0.2% to 0.7%. The project has also projected future population and economic exposure to climate extremes using both climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. Direct economic damage from global average temperature rise will ripple-spread to other regions of the world, and the impact will be 0.42%, 0.34%, and 0.22% of the gross domestic production of Canada, China and Russia, who are modeled to suffer the most. In the change of hazard, exposure, and risk, the contribution of climate system and socioeconomic system changes differ largely. In the extreme precipitation change in China, human activity contributes as much as 70%. In projected global heat wave exposure increasement, population increase contributed less than 15%. In crop yield change, technological change contributed 23.4%. These results and findings have solidly supported the IPCC global warming 1.5˚C special report, and also UNISDR’s initiative in disaster risk reduction.

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