Projecting cropping patterns around Poyang lake and prioritizing areas for policy intervention to promote rice: A cellular automata model

Authors: Rui Zhang*, Michigan State University, Qing Tian, Computational Social Science Program, College of Science, George Mason University, Luguang Jiang, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Andrew Crooks, Computational Social Science Program, College of Science, George Mason University, Shuhua Qi, Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Ruixin Yang, Department of Geography and Geoinformation Science, George Mason University, College of Science
Topics: Spatial Analysis & Modeling
Keywords: Agricultural land use, Cellular automata, Food security, Environmental sustainability, Farmland consolidation, China
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/6/2019
Start / End Time: 5:00 PM / 6:40 PM
Room: 8217, Park Tower Suites, Marriott, Lobby Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

Rural households' cropping choices are increasingly influenced by non-farm activities across the developing world, raising serious concerns about food security locally and globally. In China, rapid urbanization has led to agricultural decline in some regions. To stimulate agriculture, the Chinese government has recently increased its effort in farmland consolidation by providing special support to large farms in an attempt to address land-use inefficiency associated with small farming operations in rural areas. Focusing on the Poyang Lake Region (PLR), we develop an empirical Cellular Automata (CA) model to explore future agricultural land use and examine the impact of farmland consolidation, with the intention of providing insight for policy to effectively promote food production. The PLR is an important rice producing area for Jiangxi Province and China. In the PLR, rice can be grown once a year on a plot, or twice a year on the same plot. Our model simulates the transition between one-season and two-season rice. We use the results to identify five types of areas where rice cultivation is (i) relatively stable for one-season rice, (ii) more likely to be one-season rice, (iii) of equal probability for either type, (iv) more likely to be two-season rice, and (v) relatively stable for two-season rice. In addition we explore the characteristics of these zones in terms of biophysical and geographical features to offer a detailed analysis and discussion of how the government may prioritize areas for interventions to sustain rice production amid urbanization.

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