The Impacts of Climate Change on China’s Rice Self-sufficiency Based on GTAP Model with Alternative Regional Feedback Mechanisms

Authors: Yu Liu*, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences(CASISD), Yawen Liu, Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences(CASISD)
Topics: Agricultural Geography
Keywords: climate change; rice self-sufficiency; market and trade; regional feed-back mechanisms; GTAP model
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/4/2019
Start / End Time: 3:05 PM / 4:45 PM
Room: 8224, Park Tower Suites, Marriott, Lobby Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

Climate change is a direct and severe threat to China’s rice production and self-sufficiency. This paper, based on the Global Trade Analysis Project model (GTAP), evaluates the impacts of climate change on China’s rice self-sufficiency with focus on 2 ℃ temperature rise, and further analyzes the impact and transmission mechanisms of climate change through market and trade. To do this, a simulation method is developed that switches different regional mechanisms with the GTAP model by changing alternative closures and scenarios. Our results suggest that the fluctuation of rice price is much larger than that of rice production. The active regional feedback mechanism has much larger effects than the passive one in assessing climate change impacts. Without the active regional feedback mechanism (SRGE and MRGE_C), China’s rice export would decrease by more than 8%, and rice import increase by over 5%, which leads to a decrease in rice self-sufficiency by more than 0.06 percent points. With the active regional feedback mechanism (MRGE_W), climate change will increase China's rice export moderately due to Korea’s rising rice imports, concurrently, China’s rice import would decrease by 0.04%, which leads to a slight increase in rice self-sufficiency. As a whole, climate change will not severely threaten China’s rice self- sufficiency. By the decomposition analysis, climate change impacts on China’s rice self-sufficiency mainly depend on the changes in China’s rice production. Interestingly, the source of China’s rice import will switch from Vietnam to Pakistan in MRGE_W, which derives from the production input shares in different countries.

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