Impact assessment model of future large-scale floods on transport system

Authors: Saini Yang*, Beijing Normal University
Topics: Global Change, Hazards, Risks, and Disasters
Keywords: flood; multi-agent modeling; road network; impact assessment; traffic simulation
Session Type: Lightning Paper
Day: 4/6/2019
Start / End Time: 8:00 AM / 9:40 AM
Room: Marshall North, Marriott, Mezzanine Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

Twenty-first century climate change has produced catastrophic flooding around the world. Floods lare orientated and have a distinct trajectory and our knowledge of flood-induced failure in critical infrastructure systems is still inadequate. We here examine the flooding in the road networks of China and the USA and numerically and analytically study the propagation properties of direct, indirect, and total failures caused by flooding and compare our findings with those from of random and targeted shocks. This study propose an integrated approach to quantitatively assess the negatively impact of floods by measuring the loss of function on a road network. A multi-agent simulation model is developed to represent highway traffic flow and five global climate models and three representative concentration pathways are applied to generate possible future runoff scenarios. We simulate future flooding and runoff scenarios using the CaMa-Flood model, and impose the simulated flooding on the traffic simulator to estimate the potential loss of road network function via increased delay. We apply our proposed approach to the real-world Chinese road network and obtain some interesting findings. These findings have critical implication for policy-making of transport sectors and disaster risk reduction agencies. The proposed approach can used to aid road planning and design, network optimization, as well as to protect similar infrastructure systems.

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