Temperature and violent crime in Seoul, South Korea

Authors: Yeondae Jung*, University of Texas - Dallas
Topics: Applied Geography, Spatial Analysis & Modeling, Geographic Information Science and Systems
Keywords: Temperature, crime, Poisson mixed model
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/7/2019
Start / End Time: 2:00 PM / 3:40 PM
Room: Wilson B, Marriott, Mezzanine Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded


Although relationships between temperature and violent crime have been widely recognized in the literature, association between those has not drawn much attention at a small area level within a city. This paper investigates an association between temperature and assault in the city of Seoul, South Korea at the smallest administrative unit level, called dong. Monthly assault counts are collected for 424 dongs over a three-year period (2014-2015), and analyzed using a Poisson mixed model. Controlling for local socioeconomic and environmental variables, the results of the Poisson mixed model suggests a significant positive association between temperature and assault. In addition, two variables have a significant statistical interaction with temperature, which are poverty rates and commercial land use rates (over residential land use). The positive significance of the statistical interaction with poverty rates suggests that assault is boosted with a high temperature and a high poverty rate. In contrast, a the negative significance of the interaction with commercial land use rates indicates that the positive association of commercial land use rate tends decreases as temperature increase. These results may provide an implication about how crime prevention strategies can implemented within the city effectively along with a seasonal variation of temperature.

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