Comparison of predictive power on heated-related deaths among three heat wave formulas for the Northeast U.S.

Authors: Junya Wu*,
Topics: Climatology and Meteorology
Keywords: heatwave, health, heat-related mortality, northeast
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/7/2019
Start / End Time: 9:55 AM / 11:35 AM
Room: Truman, Marriott, Mezzanine Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

There are evidences showing the increasing frequency, intensity and duration of heatwaves in the northeast U.S. over the last several decades and for the near future, which specially brings more concerns on potentially increasing heated-related deaths. Due to the lack of pervasive definition of heatwave itself, heatwave formula is developed by taking into account different aspects (humidity for instance). This study selects and calculates three different heatwave formulas (three daily average temperature, Excess Heat Factor, Apparent Heat Wave Index) using 4km gridded observation for the Northeast, and compares their predictive power on heated-related deaths by using regression analysis with mortality rate, respectively. In conclusion, the superior predictor of heat-related deaths for Northeast U.S. would be investigated, bringing further understanding of relationship between heatwave and heat-related mortality.

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