Authors: Hongchu Yu*, Wuhan University, Zhixiang Fang, State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing (LIESMARS), Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079
Topics: Transportation Geography, Applied Geography
Keywords: Direction- Constrained Space-Time Prism; multi-ships collision avoidance; interactions probability; ship path optimization
Session Type: Paper
Start / End Time: 3:55 PM / 5:35 PM
Room: Madison A, Marriott, Mezzanine Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded
Maritime collision risk prediction is critical for ocean transportation safety management. Previous studies mostly focus on near-miss collisions risk of ship pairs, and have rarely considered how to automatically and adaptively estimate the risk of near-miss collisions for multi-ships encountering situations. In this paper, we propose a novel space-time geography concept extended methodology for multi-ships near miss collision risks analysis based on the vessels’ motion behavior and dynamic travel phenomenon. The near miss collision risks estimation is modeled through quantifying possible interactions of multi-ships collision avoidance based on Direction- Constrained Space-Time Prism. The limitation of Classical Space-Time Prism in analysis ship movements has been fill up with by incorporating direction constrains in modeling the potential interaction of multi-ships to eliminate the overestimation derived from the assumption of arbitrary changes in sailing direction. This paper uses trajectories of sample ships in Southeast Coast of China as a case study to investigate the feasibility of the proposed approach. In comparison with ship domain model, it is capable of identifying hierarchical near-miss collision risks for different ships, and improving and effectiveness of risk evaluation results and the applicability in ship path optimization by means of taking the speed and course changes of both the own ship and target ships. The proposed methodology facilitates the near miss collision risk estimations, allowing for information transfer to support maritime collision risk forecasting and take action to reduce risks.