Elaboration of Geotechnical Risk Susceptibility Maps in the Community of Rocinha using the Probabilistic Model and Geostatistics Tool

Authors: JULIANO DE LIMA*, GEORIO, MARCUS PEIGAS PACHECO, UERJ, DENISE M S GERSCOVICH, UERJ
Topics: Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, Spatial Analysis & Modeling, Geomorphology
Keywords: Gravitational Mass Movements;Bayesian update; Geoestatistics;Maps of susceptibility to geotechnical risk.
Session Type: Paper
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This paper describes a Bayesian Probability Methodology used to map susceptibility geotechnical risk areas at Rocinha community, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The methodology uses updated Bayesian probability and interpolates resources by geostatistical estimation through software that incorporates GIS (Geographic Information System) tool. We selected survey reports for this methodology after careful data mining, in which we included disasters occurred due to natural and human-induced factors. In our data mining, we also took into consideration both temporal and spatial variability of geotechnical occurrences. Based on the selected survey reports, we assigned weights based on each damage level, and we computed the probability of the risk. Through the Bayesian probability updated, the conditional probability values are updated over time, taking into account the previous record history. Once the possibilities of rupture are defined and for each rainy period, it is possible to idealize a geostatistical model capable of simulating the spatial variability of the probabilities throughout the region of the enormous extent that constitutes the Rocinha community.

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