Predicting land use changes in Philadelphia following green infrastructure policies

Authors: Charlotte Shade*, Villanova University
Topics: Land Use and Land Cover Change, Urban Geography, Geographic Information Science and Systems
Keywords: Green infrastructure, land change, GIS, land cover models
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/5/2019
Start / End Time: 8:00 AM / 9:40 AM
Room: Jackson, Marriott, Mezzanine Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded


Urbanization is a rapid global trend, leading to consequences such as urban heat islands and local flooding. Imminent climate change is predicted to intensify these consequences, forcing cities to rethink common infrastructure practices. One popular method of adaptation is green infrastructure implementation, which has been found to reduce local temperatures and alleviate excess runoff when installed effectively. As cities continue to change and adapt, land use/ landcover modeling becomes an important tool for city officials in planning future land usage. This study uses the Land Change Modeler and GEOMOD packages in TerrSet 18.3 to predict land use/ landcover changes in Philadelphia, PA for the year 2036 using high resolution landcover datasets. The 2036 landcover model assumes full implementation of Philadelphia’s green infrastructure program and past temporal patterns of urbanization. The methodology used to create the 2036 model was validated by creating an intermediate prediction of a 2015 landcover that was then compared to an existing 2015 landcover. The accuracy of the validation was determined using Kappa statistics. A variety of landscape metrics were calculated in FragStats to characterize the degree of future spatial concentration throughout the city after its green infrastructure polices have been fully implemented.

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