Study on Global Maize Yield Vulnerability to Precipitation Change

Authors: Yuan Gao*, Faculty of Geographical Science, BNU, China; Department of Earth and Environment & Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston University, USA, Jing'ai Wang, Faculty of Geographical Science, BNU, China, Bruce T Anderson, Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, USA
Topics: Hazards and Vulnerability, Climatology and Meteorology, Agricultural Geography
Keywords: Precipitation Change, Maize, Crop model, Vulnerability curve, Risk governance
Session Type: Lightning Paper
Day: 4/6/2019
Start / End Time: 8:00 AM / 9:40 AM
Room: Marshall North, Marriott, Mezzanine Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

In the context of climate change, precipitation has changed and will continue to change globally. There are few global-scale studies on maize yield vulnerability to precipitation change, which can significantly impact maize production and food security. In this study, based on historical meteorological, socioeconomic and maize yield data, we quantized the yield responses of global maize to different precipitation change components (trend, fluctuation, and extreme cases) through the combination of scenario construction and EPIC simulation, and fitted vulnerability curves. The results show that the maize yield vulnerability varies among different precipitation change components and also present regional differences under the same precipitation change scenario. Our research should be helpful to promote the systematic understanding and accurate evaluation of the vulnerability of maize growth to precipitation change and the risk governance of global food production.

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