Urban growth modeling and future exposure to climate change: study case Esmeralds - Ecuador

Authors: Fatima Benitez Ramirez*, Universidad San Francisco De Quito, Carlos Fernando Mena, Universidad San Francisco de Quito
Topics: Urban Geography, Hazards and Vulnerability, Remote Sensing
Keywords: urban growth, cellular automata, climate change, floods, landslide, Esmeraldas
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/3/2019
Start / End Time: 8:00 AM / 9:40 AM
Room: Council Room, Omni, West
Presentation File: No File Uploaded


Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and severity of certain types of hazards events, where the coastal areas end their inhabitants are particularly mostly exposed to their impacts such floods and landslides. Urban growth may intensify the population vulnerability when the cities are expanding in an uncontrolled way. This research aims identify potential driving factors in order to explain the probability of non-urban land use is converted to urban land in Esmeraldas, a coastal city of Ecuador. A hybrid simulation model that combine logistic regression and cellular automata-based modelling was performed to deliver spatial patterns and simulate future urban growth of Esmeraldas for 2035. Remote sensing data, cartographic database and census data for the period 2000 – 2015 was used to develop this study inside a free-access software environment. The overall accuracy of the model and kappa index were 96% and 74%, respectively. The results show the tendency of new settlement to occupy lands near rivers, main roads and commercial and industrial centers. However, the absence of planning and building regulations and the limited expansion over safe areas in Esmeraldas, make that your population settle in hazardous areas. Future scenario show that approximately 331 ha of urban area will be exposed at 1.5 m of sea-level rise and 337 ha of urban area will be exposed to landslides due to unstable terrain and several rainfalls, which can be intensified by climate change.

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