The relationship between industrial structure and carbon intensity under different economic stages: a analysis based on dynamic threshold panel model

Authors: Lin Zhang*,
Topics: Sustainability Science, Human-Environment Geography, Environmental Science
Keywords: carbon intensity,industrial structure,dynamic threshold model
Session Type: Poster
Day: 4/5/2019
Start / End Time: 3:05 PM / 4:45 PM
Room: Lincoln 2, Marriott, Exhibition Level
Presentation File: Download


Achieving a win-win goal of economic development and carbon intensity reduction,especially by restructuring industries is a challenge involving uncertainty and complexity. Which industry is green and whether should it be encouraged or limited in special economic level are the main questions should be answered firstly. This paper systematically analyzed the relationship between industrial structure and carbon intensity of 21 sectors from 1971 to 2014 of eight developed countries under different economic levels by using an extended dynamic threshold model. The test results indicates that there are structural changes between industrial composition and carbon intensity and the changing points for most sectors exist in $525 and $3,904 GDP per capita. Also, it was found that overall economic improvement is necessary to decrease industrial carbon intensity Further, the impact of industrial structure on carbon intensity can be summarized into four types according to the regression results: Contaminated, Pollution-clean, Cleaning hysteresis, Enhanced cleaning, and the difference among them are mainly attributed to the industrial characteristics of individual sectors. Therefore, the government and enterprises must change the proportion of sectors according to the industrial characteristics, and improve the production technology through environmental regulations.

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