Authors: Chintamani Kandel*, USGS Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center , Samuel H. Austin, USGS Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center , David L. Nelms, USGS Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center , Jennifer Lynn Rapp, USGS Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center
Topics: Water Resources and Hydrology, Geographic Information Science and Systems
Keywords: drought probability, streamflow, forecasting, Virginia, GIS
Session Type: Poster
Start / End Time: 8:00 AM / 9:40 AM
Room: Lincoln 2, Marriott, Exhibition Level
Presentation File: Download
An interactive map application was developed using the Esri ArcGIS platform to display drought probabilities for selected Virginia rivers and streams using equations that were recently published by Austin and Nelms. Maximum likelihood logistic regression was used to estimate summer month streamflow drought probabilities as a function of streamflow from previous winter months, identifying probable summer month streamflows 5 to 11 months before their occurrence. The application provides an interactive display of these projected drought probabilities. Current drought probabilities for selected Virginia streamgages are calculated using a python script, and custom symbology developed in ArcMap is used to display three summer month streamflow drought probabilities for each streamgage. The application displays vulnerable river segments with high drought streamflow probabilities and allows the user to visualize and anticipate water availability during potentially critical low-flow periods. Water-resources managers can use the application to improve planning, decision-making, and management of water resources particularly during intervals when streamflows may be low.