US House Elections of 2018: Incoming Blue Wave or Receding Red Tide?

Authors: Clark Archer, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Fred M Shelley, University of Oklahoma, Robert Watrel*, South Dakota State University
Topics: Political Geography, United States
Keywords: Electoral Geography, US House Election of 2018, US Political Regions, United States, GIS analysis
Session Type: Poster
Day: 4/6/2019
Start / End Time: 8:00 AM / 9:40 AM
Room: Lincoln 2, Marriott, Exhibition Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

Should elections for the U.S. House of Representatives across the United States be conceptualized more accurately as an incoming blue wave of Democratic advances or as a receding red tide of Republican set-backs? This poster explores geodemographic similarities and differences among and between U.S House districts which remained Democratic or remained Republican from the 115th Congress to the 116th Congress, and districts which "flipped" from one party to the other as a result of contrasting outcomes in the 2016 and 2018 U.S. House elections. District-level and regional-level GIS and statistical analyses are used to explore the geodemographic similarities and differences between and among stable versus changing districts. Markedly different overall Constituency Proportion Distributions are found for the national-level outcomes of these two elections.

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