Quantifying the spatial responses of runoff change to future land use/cover change and climate change in Connecticut River Basin

Authors: Hui Wang*, University of Connecticut, Scott Stephenson, University of Connecticut
Topics: Human-Environment Geography, Spatial Analysis & Modeling
Keywords: spatial non-stationarity, runoff, land use/cover change, climate change
Session Type: Poster
Day: 4/4/2019
Start / End Time: 8:00 AM / 9:40 AM
Room: Lincoln 2, Marriott, Exhibition Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

Long-term spatial and temporal variation in water balance components, such as surface runoff, evapotranspiration and groundwater, can be impacted by various factors within a basin, including land use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change. Spatial non-stationarity in runoff variation and its relationship to the change of each land use/cover category at local scale were ignored in previous studies. Therefore this study takes the catchments in Connecticut River Basin as an example, and mainly focuses on combining spatial regression model with hydrological model to quantitatively analyze how runoff will spatially respond to each land use/cover category change under different future climate change scenarios. Two scenarios, RCP 4.5 (low to moderate future emissions) and RCP 8.5 (very high future emissions), will be selected with the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. The research can be separated into two sections addressing two research questions: (1) what is the comparison between two climate change scenarios (i.e., RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) under CMIP5 in the prediction of runoff change and (2) how do we quantitatively analyze the future relationship between spatial variation of runoff and LUCC at local scale.

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