A quantitative assessment model of drought resistance effects on regional agriculture based on a expectation index of drought resistance effects

Authors: Yuliang Zhang*, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Juliang Jin, School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Shangming Jiang, Key laboratory of Water Conservancy and Water Resources of Anhui Province, Anhui and Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Shaowei Ning, School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Yuliang Zhou, School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Zhiyong Wu, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University
Topics: Water Resources and Hydrology, Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, Agricultural Geography
Keywords: Assessment of drought resistance effects, crop yield loss rate caused by drought, expectation index of drought resistance effects, crop water production function, drought loss risk assessment, information diffusion, Huaibei Plain in Anhui Province
Session Type: Guided Poster
Day: 4/3/2019
Start / End Time: 4:30 PM / 6:10 PM
Room: Roosevelt 3.5, Marriott, Exhibition Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded


Effects of drought resistance reveal the extent of mitigation of water deficit and drought loss through human activities of defense, mitigation, and resistance in drought risk. In order to analyze the distribution regularities of effects of drought resistance on agriculture and provide better insight for drought mitigation actions, a conception of expectation index of drought resistance effects(EDRE) was proposed from definitions of drought system. Based on the crop yield without drought resistance measures calculated by tests and simulation, expectations of drought-related crop yield loss rates with and without drought resistance measures were calculated according to drought loss risk assessment model, and quantitative assessment model of effects of drought resistance on regional agriculture was built. With a case study from Huaibei Plain in Anhui Province of China, this study found that drought resistance effects decrease gradually from north to south. The reasons for a small value of drought resistance effects relate to a large yield loss rate caused by drought with actual drought resistance measures and a small value of a yield loss rate caused by drought without drought resistance measures. Therefore, it is necessary to urgently improve drought mitigation measures on the places where the EDRE is small and expectations of drought loss without drought resistance measures are large, or the EDRE is small and expectations of drought loss with drought resistance measures are large. Main drought resistance measures were recognized through correlation analysis. Meanwhile, the adaptation of drought resistance measures for local conditions leads to a spatial distribution regularity.

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