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A Coupled Natural-Human Modeling of the Land Loss Probability in the Mississippi River Delta

Authors: Heng Cai*, Texas A&M University, Nina Lam, Louisiana State University
Topics: Spatial Analysis & Modeling, Sustainability Science, Geographic Information Science and Systems
Keywords: disaster, land loss, spatial modeling, coupled natural and human
Session Type: Paper
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

How to incorporate both natural and human factors into the land loss modeling stays a huge challenge. Using a coupled-natural and human (CNH) approach can help uncover the complex mechanism of land loss in the MRD, and provide more accurate spatiotemporal projection of land loss patterns and probability. This study uses quantitative approaches to investigate the relationships between land loss and a wide range of socio-ecological variables in the MRD. A model of land loss probability based on selected socio-ecological variables and its neighborhood effects will be derived through variogram and regression analyses. Then, we will simulate the land loss probability and patterns under different scenarios such as sea-level rise, changes in storm frequency and strength, and changes in population to evaluate the sustainability of the MRD. The outcome of this study will be a layer of pixels with information on the probability of land-water conversion. Knowledge gained from this study will provide valuable insights into the optimal mitigation strategies of land loss prevention and restoration and help build long-term sustainability in the Mississippi River Delta.

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