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Now-casting Assessment of Earthquake-Triggered Landslides: A Case Study of Taiwan

Authors: Bing Wu*, National Taiwan Normal University , Hsiang-Chieh Liu, National Taiwan University, Ray Y. Chuang, National Taiwan University
Topics: Geographic Information Science and Systems, Hazards, Risks, and Disasters
Keywords: Earthquake, Seismically Induced Landslides, Logistic Regression, Taiwan
Session Type: Paper
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

Earthquake-triggered landslides takes place in seismically active regions and potentially cause severe damages to human being’s lives. Various research has discussed the probability of earthquake-triggered landslides based on the relation between earthquake magnitude and geological features. However, only a limited research specifically focuses on the real-time forecasting of seismically induced landslides and develop global models for real-time simulation of earthquake-triggered landslides. Taiwan is located between Eurasian and Philippine Sea plates and has unique geological features formed by earthquakes. Some features significantly drive earthquake-triggered landslides yet hardly considered as key factors in the global models. As a result, this research aims to examine relevant factors that stimulate earthquake-triggered landslides, determine the significant ones, and develop a regional model for now-casting assessment in Taiwan. There are two major components in this model: (1) test correlation of factors that are relevant to landslides and set a threshold to eliminate factors with low coefficient, and (2) associate the key factors with earthquake-triggered landslides for the CA-based GIS model. Selection of factors and validation of factors in the regional model through the method of logistical regression help this regional model effective reflect possible landslides for future earthquakes and mitigate damages associated with earthquakes.

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