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The Dynamic Relationships among Vulnerability, Adaptability, and Resilience in Texas Triangle: Complexity Theories based Modeling

Authors: Fei Wang*,
Topics: Sustainability Science, Geographic Information Science and Systems, Spatial Analysis & Modeling
Keywords: Vulnerability, Adaptability, Resilience, Relationship, Modeling, Complexity Theories, Texas Triangle.
Session Type: Paper
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

The dynamic relationships among Vulnerability, Adaptability, and Resilience (VAR) are seldom studied; Also, how to implement the models of complexity theories in a Coupled Natural-Human system (CNHs) remains a big challenge. This research seeks to address both problems and takes Texas Triangle CNHs as an example.

The concepts of VAR are numerous. To integrate VAR analysis with Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework, and to simplify the modeling procedure, the vulnerability is defined as the measurement of external and internal pressures faced by the system, the resilience is defined as the measurement of system’s responses to the pressures, and the adaptability is defined as the measurement of system's state after responding to the pressures.

Based on CNHs' characteristics (e.g., natural, social, and economic), two indicator systems are built for the measurement of vulnerability and resilience; Three models from complexity theories are implemented. First two models are used to respectively measure vulnerability and resilience. Third model is defined as the function of two control variables (namely, vulnerability and resilience), and it is used to measure the adaptability. The long-term adaptability can be used to measure the sustainability.

The initial research shows that complexity theories-based modeling is a promising approach. It can be used to analyze a CNHs’ continuous and discrete behaviors, VAR indices, and the relationships among VAR; The results include many scenarios, for example, if both initial vulnerability and resilience are high, adaptability will smoothly increase as resilience increases or vulnerability decreases, or adaptability will (suddenly) decrease as resilience decreases or vulnerability increases.

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