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Future High Temperature Exposure of Rice Based on MaxENT Model

Authors: Peng Su*, School of Geographic Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, Qinghai 810008, Anyu Zhang, Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, Ran Wang, Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, Yuan Gao, Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, Jingai Wang, Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875
Topics: Hazards, Risks, and Disasters
Keywords: rice; high temperature exposure; habitat suitability zone; SDD
Session Type: Paper
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

Due to the effects of global warming, extreme temperature events are posing a great threat to crop yields, especially to temperature-sensitive crops such as rice. In the context of disaster risk theory, exposure is central to disaster prevention and reduction. Exposure consists of the hazard factor and hazard-bearing body, and the hazard-bearing body (crop potential distribution) defines the extent of exposure. Based on the MaxENT model, this paper analyzed the global distribution and change of rice exposure to high temperature. The results showed the future states of rice after exposure to high temperatures. Our results are: (1) the areas of rice-potential distribution zones decreased within the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6 to RCP8.5, where the long-term (2061-2080) decreased are greater than those seen in the medium-term (2041-2060). (2) In the future, the number of high temperature hazards in the rice-potential distribution areas increased, especially in the in tropical and subtropical regions. (3) From the overall characteristics of high temperature exposure, Asia were significantly aggravated, and South America showed significant reductions. In Africa, the performance was generally aggravated, while the rest of the continents generally lightened or had no significant changes. Under the background of global change, this paper has great significance for the mitigation of high temperature risk in rice and its effect on the potential security of future global rice production. Future research is warranted to concentrate on discussing more socio-economic factors and increasing the rice exposure change from the temporal vision.

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