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Climate change evidence from blended satellite-station estimates and station records of temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia

Authors: Woldeamlak Alemayehu*, Addis Ababa University
Topics: Climatology and Meteorology
Keywords: climate change, extremes, Ethiopia
Session Type: Paper
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

Natural climate variability is a heavy economic, social and environmental burden to Ethiopia, and the ongoing climate change is an added problem layer. This paper quantifies trends in key climate change indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The indices are calculated from (i) 4km x 4km blended satellite-station monthly temperature and rainfall estimates for 1983-2016, and (ii) quality controlled daily temperature and rainfall records for 1980-2016 from 10 stations, selected to cover the different climatic regions of the country. The results show consistent and statistically significant increasing trends in temperature and mixed patterns of rainfall change. From the blended satellite-station estimates, annual minimum, maximum and mean temperatures showed statistically significant increases; the mean temperature increased by 0.45°C per decade. The records from the 10 stations also show significant increases for most stations; for instance, warm days and warm nights increased by more than threefold in 2016 compared with the average values for 1983-2010. Rates of increase are higher in the eastern and northern parts of the country. The warming is mostly because of a higher increase in the daily minimum temperature. Annual rainfall does not show a systematic pattern of change; there are only localized statistically non-significant increases and decreases. Data from the 10 stations also showed absence of systematic and significant change in rainfall amount.

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