Spatial-temporal trends in forced migrant mortality, 2014 – 2018

Authors: Danielle Poole*, Dartmouth College
Topics: Migration, Quantitative Methods, Human Rights
Keywords: humanitarian, migration, displaced populations, spatial analytcis
Session Type: Paper
Day: 4/8/2020
Start / End Time: 11:10 AM / 12:25 PM
Room: Plaza Court 6, Sheraton, Concourse Level
Presentation File: No File Uploaded


The identification of global clusters of forced migrant mortality is urgently needed to inform preventative policies and humanitarian response. Here, we identify spatial-temporal patterns of forced migrant mortality using data arising from 16,314 deaths that occurred worldwide from 2014 – 2018. We used information on the location and dates of reported forced migrant deaths to assess spatial and temporal heterogeneity in mortality. Twelve spatial-temporal clusters of forced migrant mortality were observed. The period of August-October was associated with a 40-percentage-point increase in the risk of mortality, relative to other time periods. Our findings suggest that clusters of mortality may occur proximate to national borders and during periods of intense conflict, and may be used to target monitoring and prevention activities.

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