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Global heat-related mortality risk assessment

Authors: Qinmei Han*, Beijing Normal University
Topics: Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, Human-Environment Geography
Keywords: heat wave,mortality risk,climate change, global
Session Type: Poster
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

In the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, risk is defined as the function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Based on this theoretical framework, we calculated the heat-related mortality risk, using NEX-GDDP dataset from NASA and population projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), for historical period(1986-2005), 2030s(2016-2035) and 2050s(2046-2065) at grid(0.25°×0.25°) in the context of global climate change. Here we employed annual total heat wave days (HWDs) to quantify the heat hazard. This metric is defined as the total days that daily maximum temperatures exceed a given region’s threshold for at least three consecutive days. The heat-related mortality risk is equal to annual total heat wave days times population and times daily heat-related mortality rate which was calculated form the existing vulnerability curve. 26 regions suggested by IPCC-SREX were regrouped into six groups in terms of climate type and latitude zones. Six vulnerability curves was applied to these 6 groups of the IPCC-SREX regions to map heat wave mortality risk of the world. The results show that mortality risk is higher in the northern hemisphere, mainly distributed in the Mediterranean area, Indian peninsula, southeast China and southeast North America, which basically shows a law of decreasing in the north-south direction along the 30° north latitude. In the 2050s, compared with the 2030s, high risk areas changed significantly, and in the scenario of RCP8.5 compared with RCP4.5, the areas with high mortality risk also changed significantly.

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