Geopolitical Atlas of the Modern World: Cartograms Modeling, Multidimensional Scaling and Determination of Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation in World Politics

Authors: Igor Okunev*, MGIMO University
Topics: Political Geography, Spatial Analysis & Modeling, Quantitative Methods
Keywords: spatial autocorrelation, international relations, geopolitics, political geography
Session Type: Paper
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

The aim of the research project is to identify the spatial correlation of factors that determine the structure of modern international relations. According to the working hypothesis, the factors determining the structure of modern international relations have a significant spatial correlation, due to which the geographical organization has a fundamental impact on the nature of existing international relations. At the first stage of the project, based on the analysis of the profile literature, at least 70 most frequent statistical indicators were scored to describe the political, economic, military, socio-demographic and ideological and value factors that determine the structure of modern international relations will be identified. For each of the selected statistical indicators, the spatial parameters of its distribution were analyzed, for which anamorphosis maps (cartograms) were built. Further, using multidimensional scaling, researchers were able to reduce the dimension in the analysis of indicators to a two-dimensional matrix in which the distances between points reflect the difference between countries in the world. This allowed to calculate for the analyzed indicators the main components of variability between the countries of the world, to determine for them two-dimensional indices of spatial autocorrelation of Moran and to map, taking into account the index of importance of p-value, two-dimensional local indicators of spatial association (LISA) between them.

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