Die in Place or Die Trying: Modelling Climate Induced Migration Flows and Receiving Country Response

Authors: Anya Wu*, University of Hawaii - Manoa, Michael Kantar, University of Hawaii at Manoa Department of Tropical Plant and Soil Science, Daisuke Takagi, University of Hawaii at Manoa Department of Mathematics, Keith Bettinger, East West Center
Topics: Migration, Quantitative Methods, Climatology and Meteorology
Keywords: climate change, migration, mathematical modelling, climate change induced migration, migration policy
Session Type: Virtual Guided Poster
Presentation File: No File Uploaded


Climate change is now widely seen as a problem not only for the natural environment but to the many people across the world as well. In recent years the issue of climate change-induced migration has drawn the attention of scholars, and now media accounts of migrant flows across the Mediterranean Sea and through Central America and Mexico have brought this issue into the political arena in the European Union and the United States, with public policy consequences currently unfolding. It has become clear that the story of climate change-induced migration is as much about the response in receiving countries as it is about conditions in sending countries. This paper presents a mathematical model to aid in conceptualizing flows of climate refugees as well as responses in intermediary and receiving countries. Our model simulates current conditions and outcomes and provides insights about potential future conditions. The ultimate goal of the model is to minimize climate-change related deaths through new policies

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