Shooting Down the Ecosystem: Warfare vs. Micro-climate Anomalies

Authors: Sadiya Tijjani Baba*, Geography Dept., Lucy Stone Bldng, Hua Shang, Rutgers University, New Jersey, Ming Xu, Rutgers University, New Jersey, Carl Pray, Rutgers University, New Jersey
Topics: Africa, Regional Geography, Climatology and Meteorology
Keywords: Warfare, micro-climate, anomalies, Nigeria
Session Type: Virtual Paper
Day: 4/10/2021
Start / End Time: 1:30 PM / 2:45 PM
Room: Virtual 24
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

Regional changes in greenhouse gases due to warfare in northeastern Nigeria have the propensity to alter the micro-climate of that region. This study investigated the trends of rainfall and temperature in war-ridden northeastern parts of Nigeria based on weather station climate data over a 29 year period (1999–2019). The statistical techniques used for the analysis included descriptive statistics, Mann–Kendall’s trend test, multiple logistic regressions, and time-series plots. The results showed that for Borno state, the period (1990–2000) “before” insurgency is relatively drier with a precipitation mean of 1.83 mm, while the period “after” the rise of insurgency (2000–2019) is relatively wetter with a mean of 1.97 mm. Borno’s precipitation exhibits a statistically significant increasing rate of 0.036 mm per year. However, for Yola, the precipitation mean “before” the rise of insurgency (1990–1999) is 2.54 mm, relatively wetter than the “after” (2000–2019) period, which has a mean of 2.31 mm; Yola’s precipitation exhibited a statistically nonsignificant decreasing trend of 0.02 mm per year.
The warming trend is faster after the rise of insurgency; spatial analysis showed that the minimum and maximum temperatures of Borno increased by 0.02 °C and 0.04 °C per year, respectively, whereas those of Yola increased by 0.03 °C and 0.05 °C per year, respectively.
Although none of the statistical analyses showed a direct link between Borno’s temperature changes and warfare, both the non-parametric and multiple logistic regressions showed a statistically significant correlation between Yola’s rise in minimum and maximum temperatures to warfare.

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