Flooding & Drought risk in urban areas: risk monetization and adaptation strategies for 97 cities worldwide

Authors: Tristian Stolte*, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (IVM-VU), Felix Van Veldhoven*, Climate Adaptation Services (CAS)
Topics: Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, Hazards and Vulnerability
Keywords: flood, drought, city, urban, adaptation, climate risk
Session Type: Virtual Paper
Day: 4/7/2021
Start / End Time: 11:10 AM / 12:25 PM
Room: Virtual 6
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

Floods and drought spells are increasing in intensity and frequency, and threaten the rapidly expanding urban areas. This calls for focused research on urban climate risks and the production of actionable knowledge for cities to mitigate these risks. In this research, we therefore (1) quantify the risk of inland flooding and droughts for 97 cities around the world for the current and future (2050) situation, using different climate and socioeconomic scenarios. Additionally, we (2) provide context to this risk by spatially overlaying it with socioeconomic indicators. Finally, we (3) identify possible adaptation actions to mitigate flood and drought risk in urban areas. Flood and drought risk were quantified following the common definition: hazard*exposure*vulnerability=risk. For fluvial flooding, we use a state-of-the-art global flood model, including a new exposure module (2UP). Due to data limitations, pluvial flooding is assessed by using the chance of extreme precipitation events as a proxy. Drought is measured by estimating the annual water deficits for urban water supply and agricultural areas. Furthermore, risks are monetized in USD for all but pluvial flooding. To complement this quantification, we provided socioeconomic context for each city. This information was then used to identify suitable adaptation actions. An inventory of reactive, preventive and transformative adaptation actions was developed to provide cities with a perspective for action. Cities may use this inventory to identify a mix of adaptation measures, where a combination of the three approaches would be an adequate way to address both short- and long-term risks and opportunities.

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