Urbanization Induced Increase in Impervious Surface & Linkages to Land Surface Temperature: A Time-Series Analysis and Future Perspectives

Authors: Hafiza Nayab Gul*,
Topics: Land Use and Land Cover Change
Keywords: Land use, urban growth, ANN, land surface temperature
Session Type: Virtual Paper
Day: 4/10/2021
Start / End Time: 1:30 PM / 2:45 PM
Room: Virtual 24
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

Analyzing spatial-temporal changes in urban thermal environment is a prerequisite for planning sustainable urban development. This study analyzes the urbanization trend over past two decades and its impact on changing land surface temperature in Faisalabad city of Pakistan. In this study, the Landsat images from 1995 to 2019 with an interval of 5 years are used for the analysis. In the first part, we analyze the spatial-temporal dynamics in urban growth pattern spanning from (1995-2019), then developed urban growth scenarios for 2030 as short-term policy and 2050 long term policy. To simulate the urban growth scenarios, we used a CA-based FLUS model coupled with an integrated artificial neural network (ANN) which is explicitly developed to simulate the future land use changes and urban growth under the effect of the natural environment and human activities. The results show an overall expansion trend in urban growth rate with an average areal increase of 16.7% in past two decades and expected to continue this rising trend from many-fold by 2050. In the second part, we evaluate the impacts of urbanization-induced increase in impervious surface and its relation to land surface temperature. For this purpose, a well-known statistical approach linear regression model is used to investigate the associations between land surface temperature and built-up area (impervious surface). The interdecadal change in land surface temperature shows an increasing linear trend (R² = 0.82). The spatial linear regression trend of land surface temperature is positively correlated with impervious surface area (ISA) and negatively correlated with NDVI

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