Risk, Real Estate, and Climate Gentrification: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis of Flood Effects in Three US Counties

Authors: Ryan Miller*, University of California, Davis
Topics: Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, Urban and Regional Planning, United States
Keywords: flood, risk, climate gentrification, oregon, colorado, north dakota, fluvial, insurance, floodplain, development
Session Type: Virtual Paper
Day: 4/9/2021
Start / End Time: 4:40 PM / 5:55 PM
Room: Virtual 9
Presentation File: No File Uploaded

The relationship between perceived hazard risk and real estate prices has long been of interest to economic, policy, and planning researchers. This paper uses 17 years of property transaction information provided by Zillow to better understand the relationship between high-intensity urban flooding events and residential real estate markets in the post-flood period. This relationship is examined in three counties which each experienced significant fluvial flooding events between 2009 and 2013: Benton County, Oregon; Boulder County, Colorado; and Cass County, North Dakota. The analysis aimed to first detect the presence of any price discounting in affected areas following an event, and second, where such discounting is detected, quantify any eventual rebound in property values in an effort to determine the duration of such discounting. Our results show evidence of sustained price discounting following a catastrophic flooding event in Benton County, Oregon. While this is favorable from a risk-capitalization and insurance market standpoint, it also points toward entrenched housing inequity in hazard-prone regions, where lower-income populations may be increasingly limited to living in harm’s way.

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